Monday, March 9, 2020

IMPACT OF CORONAVIRUS ON CRUDE OIL PRICE

               IMPACT OF CORONAVIRUS ON CRUDE OIL PRICE
Oil price is down because of the global spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19). Brent crude ($36.12/ barrel) and WTI ($32.98/barrel) are down 20%. COVID-19 is creating a global economic slowdown that is creating a disequilibrium between supply and demand. Dynamic of this price fall originate from a conflict of production cut between OPEC and Saudi Arabia. We should not be a surprise, if the price of crude oil continues to go down in the near future. Slowdown of economic activities in China could be at the origin of more price fall in the near future. China is now the world biggest importer of crude oil and more than 50% of the world consumption of crude oil is in Asia. This reality could be an important factor of de-dollarization of the trade of crude oil, if the Chinese make a deal with the Saudi. De-dollarization of trade of crude oil mean the end of the suprema tie of the US dollar. In United States of America, low price of crude oil could create default on loans in the shale oil industry.

Thursday, March 5, 2020

Ray Dalio bets against the Market by buying $1.5 billion put options.

Ray Dalio bets against the market by buying $1.5 billion put options. The options expire in March 2020. In recents years put options have been increasing, welcome to the bear market.